Division 1
I have laid Sheff Wed for promotion on Betfair at 3.5.
Top scorer Steven MacLean (19 goals this season), goalie David Lucas and centre half (and captain?) Graeme Lee last played for Wednesday on 12th March in a 3-2 win over Blackpool. The following week rather unluckily all 3 were injured and out for the season.
Wednesday have won 1 game since. A last minute 2-1 win at Hull on the day Hull were celebrating a confirmed promotion to the Championship. This run of 9 games with one win has even seen them draw 0-0 at home with a terrible terrible Stockport side. Now thats poor!
Due to the fact that it was before the transfer deadline Wednesday brought in a goalie (Paul Gallagher, from Norwich, ex Dundee Utd and a couple of Scotland caps). Also Alex Bruce, a centre half from Birmingham and Graham Barrett to replace MacLean up front. Barrett has had 5 starts, 1 sub and got 1 goal so he's no replacement for MacLean.
The other negative for Wednesday is that in the last league game of the season replacement keeper Gallagher got sent off in the 3-2 defeat by Bristol City. I assume he brought down a City player in the box because he was sent off and City scored a penalty all in the 80th minute of the match. Wednesday have mentioned they may appeal but I can't see on what grounds if the ref awarded the penalty. No word of it the appeal will go through though.
Overall none of the 4 sides in the play off have great recent form. However there is no doubt that Wednesday have the worst form of the 4 and have showed nothing of note since the triple injury blow in March. Its no surprise that when they have lost the spine of the side that their form has suffered so.
They face a difficult tie with a Brentford side very strong at home and who are actually getting the odd result away from home now. Wednesday also suffer from the large crowds and expectations/pressure at Hillsborough and their home record is mid table, not ideal for a promotion chasing side.
I actually see them going out to Brentford but overall I am happy to lay a side with such poor form in the league for promotion. I laid at 3.5 earlier this week and I think they are a little higher now but IMO still worth a lay at prices 3.8 and lower.
Division 2
Some stats on winners and qualifiers for these games from RFO today. Based on last 10 seasons of the play offs.
Division 2 has the clearest trends.
In the game between the 1st seeds (whoever finished 4th) and the 4th seeds (7th placed) the 1st seeds have qualified for the final 9 times out of the last 10 match ups. That would be Southend to qualify at Northamptons expense this time.
Likewise 2nd seeds (5th) have knocked out 3rd seeds (6th) 7 times from the last 10 match ups.
Overall thats 16 out of 20 match ups where the higher placed side has gone through.
The 1st seed has gone on to promotion 8 times out of 10.
1pt level stakes on the 1st seed over last 10 years would have yielded a 16.62pt profit.
With this in mind I will have
5pts on Southend to gain promotion at 3.65 with Betfair
Will also try and get matched on Southend to qualify. Looking at laying Northampton who are currently 1.78 to qualify.
Likewise will look to have a small interest in Macclesfield to knock out Lincoln. Market pretty dead on Betfair at present with the Macc price 1.87 - 2.30
Would be interested in any team news or anything that could explain why given the past 10 seasons trends Northampton are favoured over Southend on Betfair.
Championship
Again based on RFO 10 year stats for the play offs (see Div 2 thread).
RFO also looked at 6 match form going into the play offs. Over Division 1 and 2 there was no clear trend bar 5 teams with best 6 match form in Division 2 going up.
However the one clear trend was in the now Championship.
The team with the worst 6 match form going into the play offs has never been promoted in 10 years of trying. And the 6 match form for the 4 teams...
Derby 12pts
West Ham 11pts
Preston 10pts
Ipswich 9pts
8 out of the 10 teams promoted from the Championship based on 6 match form have either been ranked 1 or 2 in form tables (4 1st, 4 2nd) - Derby or West Ham.
Ipswich are available at 3.5 on Betfair to lay, based on these form table trends I have
Laid Ipswich at 3.5 for promotion. Risking 7.5pts to gain 3pts.
I have laid Sheff Wed for promotion on Betfair at 3.5.
Top scorer Steven MacLean (19 goals this season), goalie David Lucas and centre half (and captain?) Graeme Lee last played for Wednesday on 12th March in a 3-2 win over Blackpool. The following week rather unluckily all 3 were injured and out for the season.
Wednesday have won 1 game since. A last minute 2-1 win at Hull on the day Hull were celebrating a confirmed promotion to the Championship. This run of 9 games with one win has even seen them draw 0-0 at home with a terrible terrible Stockport side. Now thats poor!
Due to the fact that it was before the transfer deadline Wednesday brought in a goalie (Paul Gallagher, from Norwich, ex Dundee Utd and a couple of Scotland caps). Also Alex Bruce, a centre half from Birmingham and Graham Barrett to replace MacLean up front. Barrett has had 5 starts, 1 sub and got 1 goal so he's no replacement for MacLean.
The other negative for Wednesday is that in the last league game of the season replacement keeper Gallagher got sent off in the 3-2 defeat by Bristol City. I assume he brought down a City player in the box because he was sent off and City scored a penalty all in the 80th minute of the match. Wednesday have mentioned they may appeal but I can't see on what grounds if the ref awarded the penalty. No word of it the appeal will go through though.
Overall none of the 4 sides in the play off have great recent form. However there is no doubt that Wednesday have the worst form of the 4 and have showed nothing of note since the triple injury blow in March. Its no surprise that when they have lost the spine of the side that their form has suffered so.
They face a difficult tie with a Brentford side very strong at home and who are actually getting the odd result away from home now. Wednesday also suffer from the large crowds and expectations/pressure at Hillsborough and their home record is mid table, not ideal for a promotion chasing side.
I actually see them going out to Brentford but overall I am happy to lay a side with such poor form in the league for promotion. I laid at 3.5 earlier this week and I think they are a little higher now but IMO still worth a lay at prices 3.8 and lower.
Division 2
Some stats on winners and qualifiers for these games from RFO today. Based on last 10 seasons of the play offs.
Division 2 has the clearest trends.
In the game between the 1st seeds (whoever finished 4th) and the 4th seeds (7th placed) the 1st seeds have qualified for the final 9 times out of the last 10 match ups. That would be Southend to qualify at Northamptons expense this time.
Likewise 2nd seeds (5th) have knocked out 3rd seeds (6th) 7 times from the last 10 match ups.
Overall thats 16 out of 20 match ups where the higher placed side has gone through.
The 1st seed has gone on to promotion 8 times out of 10.
1pt level stakes on the 1st seed over last 10 years would have yielded a 16.62pt profit.
With this in mind I will have
5pts on Southend to gain promotion at 3.65 with Betfair
Will also try and get matched on Southend to qualify. Looking at laying Northampton who are currently 1.78 to qualify.
Likewise will look to have a small interest in Macclesfield to knock out Lincoln. Market pretty dead on Betfair at present with the Macc price 1.87 - 2.30
Would be interested in any team news or anything that could explain why given the past 10 seasons trends Northampton are favoured over Southend on Betfair.
Championship
Again based on RFO 10 year stats for the play offs (see Div 2 thread).
RFO also looked at 6 match form going into the play offs. Over Division 1 and 2 there was no clear trend bar 5 teams with best 6 match form in Division 2 going up.
However the one clear trend was in the now Championship.
The team with the worst 6 match form going into the play offs has never been promoted in 10 years of trying. And the 6 match form for the 4 teams...
Derby 12pts
West Ham 11pts
Preston 10pts
Ipswich 9pts
8 out of the 10 teams promoted from the Championship based on 6 match form have either been ranked 1 or 2 in form tables (4 1st, 4 2nd) - Derby or West Ham.
Ipswich are available at 3.5 on Betfair to lay, based on these form table trends I have
Laid Ipswich at 3.5 for promotion. Risking 7.5pts to gain 3pts.
