Ok I will start this thread again, as I hope it is safe now 
I have come up with a rating calculator in Excell for WNBA, and I am starting to get enough raw data to spit out some workable lines. I think htat there is about 50 games now, which for me is a good point to get going. It might seem small to some peoplebut because of the method of getting the ratings, the teams should all be linked by now, as potentially every single game could have an effect on the ratings of one team.
I have yet to factor in the weighting of previous games, or any change for teams that have layed a lot in a short amount of time. For example the ratings Come up with Los Angeles -4.5 against Minnesota. The thing is Minnesota are playing their third game in four days, and they didnt fair well last night getting beat by double digits, in a game they were only 5 point dogs. So I have adjusted this one to -7.5 . The fact that I havent got this factored into the ratings will dilute them a little, but situations like this dnt arise muchfor each team, so for now, I think a manual adjustment will be ok. I will get to the point where this is in the ratings, but as my focus will be switching to Euro hoops next season, it isnt my main concern right now.
So this thread will be the results of the ratings. I am still working on the spreadsheets to give me the results, but hope to post the record if betting(I play when the line is out by 2 points) and also the Absolute error of the ratings. As I am keeping records of market data, I will post a comparison against that. I have Opening and Closing lines from CRIS, one of the biggest US books, which also takes big limits for all players. For anyone who plays the WNBA already, Olympic put up the firstline, and sometimes it can be a bit wild, but you have to be there ready for it, as it wont last long.
My ultimate goal is to get the system working well enough to transfer it to the European Basketball, as lots of books are starting to price up lots of these leagues now. I have no aspirations whatsoever to try and beat the NBA, as I have worked in a big american book, and have good experience of the betting market, and IMO the NBA is one of the most efficient markets out there. You need more than a decent ratings system to beat that league.
I will start posting the Ratings from Monday. Hopefully will have enough time each day to put up the previous days Opening and Closing Lines, so people can make their own records if they want to. If anyone is interested i will post all of the data I have so far, its only this season but its a start
I hope this post doesnt disapear
JT
I have come up with a rating calculator in Excell for WNBA, and I am starting to get enough raw data to spit out some workable lines. I think htat there is about 50 games now, which for me is a good point to get going. It might seem small to some peoplebut because of the method of getting the ratings, the teams should all be linked by now, as potentially every single game could have an effect on the ratings of one team.
I have yet to factor in the weighting of previous games, or any change for teams that have layed a lot in a short amount of time. For example the ratings Come up with Los Angeles -4.5 against Minnesota. The thing is Minnesota are playing their third game in four days, and they didnt fair well last night getting beat by double digits, in a game they were only 5 point dogs. So I have adjusted this one to -7.5 . The fact that I havent got this factored into the ratings will dilute them a little, but situations like this dnt arise muchfor each team, so for now, I think a manual adjustment will be ok. I will get to the point where this is in the ratings, but as my focus will be switching to Euro hoops next season, it isnt my main concern right now.
So this thread will be the results of the ratings. I am still working on the spreadsheets to give me the results, but hope to post the record if betting(I play when the line is out by 2 points) and also the Absolute error of the ratings. As I am keeping records of market data, I will post a comparison against that. I have Opening and Closing lines from CRIS, one of the biggest US books, which also takes big limits for all players. For anyone who plays the WNBA already, Olympic put up the firstline, and sometimes it can be a bit wild, but you have to be there ready for it, as it wont last long.
My ultimate goal is to get the system working well enough to transfer it to the European Basketball, as lots of books are starting to price up lots of these leagues now. I have no aspirations whatsoever to try and beat the NBA, as I have worked in a big american book, and have good experience of the betting market, and IMO the NBA is one of the most efficient markets out there. You need more than a decent ratings system to beat that league.
I will start posting the Ratings from Monday. Hopefully will have enough time each day to put up the previous days Opening and Closing Lines, so people can make their own records if they want to. If anyone is interested i will post all of the data I have so far, its only this season but its a start
I hope this post doesnt disapear
JT
